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into deflation? how big of a threat is that? >> we don't see it as a very likely prospect that this inflation would deepen, would worsen in the eurozone as growth recovers, which is our main scenario. inflation will pick up gradually, and we will gradually come back to the 2% objective of the ecb. so this is the most likely scenario. that said, we've seen inflation cutting closer to zero. we have this safety buffer that protects us from entering into the danger zone when it comes to inflation numbers. and we'll be monitoring very carefully these numbers. the governing council of the ecb has been clear, saying that he's ready to keep rates at a low level for an extended period of time and if necessary, lower, if we see this safety buffer being further eroded. but that's not the most likely scenario, in our view. >> if a deflationary spiral is not something of major concern to you, why are your fellow policymakers citing the need for possible negative deposit rates? >> well, negative deposit rates is a possibility. we've been clear already a month ago that this has been discussed technically in
375 jobs in france. it did miss on net profit expectations. don't miss stephane pedrazzi's report on that. >>> but first, twitter will make its debut on a public company on the new york stock exchange. cnbc's kayla tousche has been following the ipo from the beginning. >> twitter priced its highly anticipated ipo at $26 per share. that means the company will raise roughly $1.8 billion in proceeds with an option to raise an additional $270 million more. was more is that the company will now be valued at more than $18 billion, quite a rich valuation for a company that's not yet profitable. in to 16, it's expected to have 1.3 billion in revenue and potentially over on $200 million in edta. that's for a company seven years old, one of the highest growing in silicone valley and one of the most eagerly anticipated of this year to be sure. we'll have more details as we get them, but that's the latest. >> that's kayla with the details. we will bring you an exclusive interview with the twitter ceo in just under an hour. so clearly we want to know today where do you think the twitter stock
the profits to reinvest in the economy. we don't know exactly what's the plan. the french government is struggling to reduce its struggling deficit. it sold some significant stakes, raised some 2 billion euros and you know what? the speculation is it will continue to do so because the french government still has significant stakes in plenty of companies including eads, the electronics producer. we can expect a similar announcement in the next couple of months. >> checking on bond rates, ten-year treasury yields are fairly volatile this week. right now, yielding 7.1%. we were at 2.69. ten-year gilt yield, just below 2.78el%. we're currently at 103.3. we're still at a two-month high. euro/dollar, 1.34 still with that handle and sterling just above 1.60. now, months after anticipation, the console war is heating up again as sony launches its play station four in north america today. sony has predicted sales of 3 million units across 32 countries by the end of the year. the latest device is the success of the popular ps3 which sold more than 80 million units today. microsoft is waiting i
problems. that may be a step the governments don't want to take. already now we have a centralized european way of thinking about bailing out banks. we know that it's in the front line so you're right. the mechanisms to bail out banks should be in place quickly. they should be in place by the time that the asset review is finished. >> what do you think we're going to get from germany and france on resolutions? >> we've been given tight time lines that they failed to meet. i don't know. i mean, i think if they use the aqr as an excuse to do so, then they'll probably find something that they need in order to push that. >> where's the opportunity at the moment for banks? we know where the risks are. where's the opportunity? >> in some ways i think it gets worse from here while people worry about the asset quality review. the outcome is one to restore confidence. this time next year some banks will do badly and ones that are sort of well known to have problematic assets. however, i like to think on the european union basis, some companies have a first level. those countries where the regulator
. we don't expect a lot of jobs to be created. people think the only reason it goes up at all is they continue to keep rates low then we should be fine with a weak number, right? still, no. when we get that number people say holy cow this economy is so weak. they'll get really scared and you know what they do, sell, sell, sell. it will be boring and there will be more sellers. no, my solution is if you're at all nervous about friday, under both scenarios, you're going to get -- >> sell sell sell. >> unless the number comes not too strong, not too weak the number could take a hit. i need you to plan accordingly. after the close we'll hear from three cramer favs. you've heard all of these companies on our show. all three raise production numbers but oil plummeted here. if crue goes $5 lower -- i wouldn't be a buyer of any of them going in. tuesday we got names like tesla. i think tesla is a cold stock. and if he announces a deal in europe or china, this one sees a flash. i don't expect any weakness. there's a lot of chatter about competitive products about what they have in the
don't totally undo all the good that we have done up until this point. now, here's what's really important to first understand -- most of the gifts that you give people, they do not want. i mean that. somebody always -- people tend to give me candles. people, i don't want any more candles. i have enough candles. so, why don't we start being smart. first of all, you need to plan how much money can you afford to give in total. then you need to make a list. how many people does this amount of money need to cover? you will divide that amount by the number of people you're gonna give gifts to. let's say it comes out to $25. so, you can spend $25 on each person you want to give a gift to. what i want you to do after that is i want you to go to that person, and i want you to ask them to write down 5 things that they really, really want that are $25 or less. now, they'll have things that they really want. that is their wish list. and if you really want to be santa, then fulfill one of those items on that wish list, and give it to them. so, now, you're giving them a gift that they want, y
this. we don't think we've overpaid. >>> the swiss market has caved in to carl icahn. they're paying a dividend for the first time in two years. >>> france says it's not standing in a way with a deal with iran after being blamed for stifling six party negotiations over ending the country's nuclear program. >>> u.n. claims some 9.5 million people in the philippines have been affected by typhoon haiyan. up to 10,000 people are estimated to be killed in the city. it's been hampered by disrupted access to remote communities. we have more from manila in this report. >> what we know is that this is an unprecedented natural disaster for this country. now there's really no stranger to extreme weather and earthquakes. even seasoned officials are shocked by the severity, especially of the storm surges that were caused by this super typhoon and it's created what many are describing as sue nam any type conditions. a lot of these villages are wiped to the ground. same as we saw in 2004 in december during the indian ocean tsunami. this is creating some very serious low guelogistical difficulties.
. they don't like people saying they have expected surpluses of the eurozone, annette. >> not really. but if you're looking at the euro set figures, then you see that germany has to expect a surplus for the eurozone. they're having a surplus for the rest of the world, i.e. china as well as united states. so that whole imbalance thing within the eurozone, that really makes sense. so then it comes to really -- if you look at the numbers, and those numbers now for the third quarter are most likely going down very well in berlin and not too well in brussels and as well in washington. because as far as first time i can remember is that growth is supported by household government spending and very importantly, i have to stress that capital spending of german companies because during the run up to the elections, we heard a lot of companies complaining about high energy produces, insecurities, when it comes to tax hikes, and a lot of companies did want to spend inside germany, but they were threatening to go away. and this actually shows now that german companies invest in germany, as well,
. >> yeah. you're absolutely right, ross. the -- that the govern has been thinking we don't care about the markets, if the market doesn't believe us, that's not a problem. we want to get the message out to the real economy, to those businesses to feel comfortable that those rates will stay low for longer. and there is information out there in terms of surveys that businesses feel more comfortable that rates will stay low at the beginning of the year. that means they'll be investing. a key issue is productivity. what the bank is saying is that they expect productivity to actually start growing. and we've been at really low levels of productivity. it has inched up slightly, but if productivity goes up, you're more flat in the economy. >> i am, indeed. look at the time charge. >> there's nothing like a fan chart. good morning. that's what i always say. thank you very much for that, helia. >>> china needs to be more specific on the policies it intend toes implement according to the u.s. treasury secretary jack lew who is currently touring asia. speaking exclusively to our colleague in sing
is the demand going to come from once this first stimulus rolls throw. companies aren't convinced at all, i don't think. >>> still to come, the merger from germany's social impasse could coalition talks actually crumble? we'll get to berlin for the latest right after this. ♪ ♪ stacy's mom has got it goin' on ♪ ♪ stacy's mom has got it goin' on ♪ ♪ stacy's mom has got it goin' on ♪ [ male announcer ] the beautifully practical and practically beautiful cadillac srx. get the best offers of the season now. lease this 2014 srx for around $369 a month with premium care maintenance included. ♪ negotiates from iran and six world powers are lit down for a second round of talks in geneva today. yesterday's meeting was deemed positive by the eu's chief and the iranian foreign minister. hopes are for an interim agreement when talks conclude tomorrow, so u.s. secretary of state john kerry says america will not let any deal be used by iran as they ploy to buy time to increase its nuclear capability. later in the show, we'll ask what each potential outcome of the talks with iran could have on
, you don't question him. another lady told me that he's an angel, a guardian angel for italy. so the key question is is he a fallen angel? he's lost his parliamentary immunity here. so he now could be arrested, treated like a criminal for some of the cases against him. does that dent his popularity? time will tell. but this coalition needs to focus on reforms. they would like to push berlusconi aside. i'm just not sure whether they'll be able to do that. >> jules, for now, thank you. let's bring you up to speed with where we are on this global trading day without the u.s. markets. advancers outpacing decliners by a ratio around about 7 to 2, something like that. now, we saw u.s. markets closing up with fresh record highs overnight. the dow up 40 points, s&p up 20.5. this morning, it's moved higher, up just 7 points. volumes will be lighter without the u.s., but there's all that data to get through, as well. a decline in m3. the jobless numbers, a mixed data for the eurozone. xetra dax up about 0.3% at the moment. 9,377. cac 40, 4,300 up 0.2% and the ftse mib, up 0.5%, as well. we
2% inflation target based on our current projections, we don't think that's going to happen and, hence, we think the governor at bank of japan will have to do mormon tear easing coming this april in 2014 in order to, again, re-establish their credibility that they can eventually hit the target of 2%. >> gradually rise next year, how long do you think it might take to hit 2% or what will they need to do to try and hit 2%? >> well, given the three arrows policy of the prime minister abe, the third arrow has been somewhat disappointing. so they will probably have to do a little bit more on the monetary side. we think dollar/yen needs to head significantly higher from the current levels if we are only going to see monetary stimulus achieving this particular target. but at this particular junction, we don't think that 2% is going to be hit in the next couple of years, at least. >> what about the sort of growth we're going to get? >> in terms of growth, we think the fourth quarter could be marginally better. but as far as 2014 is concerned, we think there's probably going to be a bit
the -- countercollapse or whatever. so i would hope when it happens that the markets don't tread quite as bad hi. it will happen. it would be that the economy is still weak in the u.s. that indeed markets can relax, that the qe will continue forever. that just won't happen. as a central banker, you're looking at the way the monetary bank has exploded and you can't ignore that. so you try to focus investors and attention on the fact that interest rates are going to remain low forever so they're reassured so that tapering can start. it will work hopefully better than this summer. >> there's a green light for investors. liquidity is there. keep buying, keep pushing it up. is there an unknown risk about actually easing does more damage than good? i'm trying to work out where the problem might come from. >> well, i don't think it matters more going forward into next year is the word economy. we've been through a period where any kind of bad news was good news for the market. now that the markets are start to go relation that qe won't be forever, then good economic news is likely to become good market
have another child but they don't plan to take advantage. >> reporter: having two children costs too much. it also takes a lot of our energy. if we were to have another child time or money wise, it would be a heavy burden for us. >> reporter: that sentiment among young chinese is leading many here to believe china's decision to relax the one child policy won't lead to a baby boom. couples can have two children if one of the parents is a single child like the wongs. an experiment was headed up in shonn xi allowing parents to have two children. four years after the first child and get married later than most newlyweds, conditions that occur as society gets richer and lifestyles change as they are in china today. >> translator: the experiment was to ease the family planning commission's concerns. >> reporter: instead, it dropped below the national average of 1 point poip 6 babies per woman. the one child policy has been criticized for causing a population to age fast which could hamper china's economic future. many see the policy change as a test for a bigger move. >> reporter: fears it
's not in the pboc's interest to wreck havoc there. that's why we're a little bit intimidated. why don't we signal nor clearly what they're trying to achieve there and why don't they give us more comfort that it's not their aim to see those interest rates bumping around a lot. >> and look, this is the manufacturing pmi number we've had today. we saw iron ore imports in the last set of trade figures up at 17-month highs. and mining companies in australia talking about higher demand or production levels, as well. are you comfortable there is going to be the continued demand for base materials from china support the miners, which have had a pretty rotten year? >> yeah. you know, this -- like this very physical part of the economy, like heavy industry and the commodities sphere tends to be quite volatile. we have seen that the construction industry, the construction of housing, you know, has gone up and down in the last two years. when we look at it in the common quarters, we think that the housing construction will remain pretty solid and that is one important driver of the demand for steel, for othe
aspect, is it enough to put off investors or not? >> i don't think so. the reforms in germany is not the issue. the reforms need to be done more in the southern part of europe where you have higher unemployment rates. germany has always been a ghost driver. the rest of europe might like the fact that the reforms are slowed because it gives them a chance to potentially grow further. >> in europe, what it does is reinforce a difference of opinion between germany and france and italy. they don't want the european commission to decide on winding up banking should be a separate institution on that. they've moved away from allowing to directly recapitalize banks. this creates division. we don't know how to quite close it up, do we? >> no. there's always been this tension between the two parties. we still have to wait to see what happened with the omt court case and whether or not that's allowed. so germany continues to have to fund the rest of europe and the german taxpayers are not -- >> in fact, a story that will potentially become a headwind in 2014? >> i think it will. i think w
with premium care maintenance included. because what you don't know, can hurt you.urance. what if you didn't know that posting your travel plans online may attract burglars? [woman] off to hawaii! what if you didn't know that as the price of gold rises, so should the coverage on your jewelry? [prospector] ahh! what if you didn't know that kitty litter can help you out of a slippery situation? the more you know, the better you can plan for what's ahead. talk to farmers and get smarter about your insurance. ♪ we are farmers bum - pa - dum, bum - bum - bum - bum♪ >>> we are at the annual meeting of the cbi. they say their members are supportive of staying in the e.u. their businesses. they say it's around 4 to 5% the value of gdp. john quinn lan is stating the case for membership. he's talking about the things that are needed to be done to reform the e.u. he has looked at the alternatives and has dismissed them as he told us today. >> british business would be poorer with less influence if we were outside of the european union. we've looked at some of the options, the norwegian option, th
providers, i don't think we're at the end of this party yet. >> are blue chips looking for attractive? they say the s&p valued closer to operating profit, price earnings ratios about twal equal to the long run average. >> i think collectively, the story is one of do i believe in cyclicals, do i believe in value. if you're a value investor, you're going to go with large cap, you're going to go with global plays. there will always be small caps which are the stock de jour. but if you're looking at the big board, where the markets leave, i think thee mattockly, you're still seeing some leadership being offered by value. consumer discretionary, for example. the big caps seem to have leadership. >> buffett said he's finding it hard to find value. and then he went and bought some exxon. >> indeed. is he parking cash there or -- doesn't mean he's going to bit for tesco. he has his core business. i think he was telling you. the fact that he's putting money to work in equity markets. so he likes equities. yes, he's an equity man. the hurdle rates are low. >> that's the key point, isn't it? whe
capitalized. we aim -- when i say we, i don't say only ecb, because all the national competent authorities are working with the ecb in an atmosphere that is very encouraging. let me say, i see some who are calling us here today, just want to tell them that the way they work together is truly very encouraging. it's conducive to mutual trust and to collaboration that is inducive of further progress throughout this difficult exercise. but the exercise here is have a supervisory risk assessment, an asset quality review and a stress test. i will not go into the details here as they are being communicated separately to groups of banks. we already had two meetings. this afternoon there will be a third meeting, and so, we will complete this first round of communication with the banking industry. this exercise is going to be comprehensive because it will cover 128 banks and about 85% of the assets of countries participating in this. it will be consistent because it will be centrally led with a regalist common methodology and there will be no room for perceptions of national bias. there should be no
. at farmers, we make you smarter about insurance. because what you don't know, can hurt you. what if you didn't know that posting your travel plans online may attract burglars? [woman] off to hawaii! what if you didn't know that as the price of gold rises, so should the coverage on your jewelry? [prospector] ahh! what if you didn't know that kitty litter can help you out of a slippery situation? the more you know, the better you can plan for what's ahead. talk to farmers and get smarter about your insurance. ♪ we are farmers bum - pa - dum, bum - bum - bum - bum♪ >>> october trade picks signals that economic growth continues to rebound. exports rose 5.6% on the year, way more than expected following a decline in september. imports grew a solid 7.6%. attention now turns to sector and inflation activity due tomorrow. eunice joins us in beijing ahead of this. eunice, first of all, the latest on the trade data before we talk about, you know, what's going to happen over the weekend. what is the view currently of the strength and sustainability of growth? >> well, that's a big question. right n
. japan had enormous reserves at the end of the '80s. reserves don't really help. you have to remember that the central bank isn't just sitting on a pile of cash. it's balance sheet. it's borrowed renminbi and it's used those to buy dollars. so it has debt against all of those assets. it used those assets to shore up the banking system. all you're doing is borrowing money to solve the debt problem and that doesn't really solve the debt problem. >> what do we do with the debt in china? is it a bomb about to explode? >> it's a slow motion bomb. the local debt in china and lots of other debt represents an overstatement to the gdp for many years. money was going into the investment projects that really didn't justify the investment costs, but they weren't written down. so that's the problem. what are the problems from the 80s? we're going to go many, many years writing that stuff down and under conditions of sloerl growth. >> very quickly, michael, japan, the september trade data, japan logging a bigger than expected surplus. but if you correct, the largest ever deficit. that's puzzling. i
spending is up 8.2% and on normal years, we're spending more this year than in previous years. so i don't think we're going to see a massive change in public sector employment, at all. >> just how strong is going to going to be, then, going into next year? clearly, the fourth quarter could be as strong presumably as the third quarter. >> yeah. if you look at what analyst res expecting for all the g-7 economies, it's a real pick up analysts have seen over the last four or five months, really. back in june, we were talking about growth in the uk for about 1.5% in the last year. and a lot of analysts are now expecting close to three. we would be, of course, at the top end of that range. >> 3% growth for the uk? >> i think we're talking 1.7% personally, but there are others talking about 3% plus. which would make it a strong economy on a g-10 level. what's going to happen to sterling? is sterling going to get stronger and actually help ease some of those inflationary pressures? >> yeah, i mean, we do see up sides, particularly against the euro. i think the eurozone woes are going to continu
of people have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp. don't wait. call now. >>> samsung's stock, you can see, is down about 2.3% today. its first analyst day in more than eight years. many of them want to know whether samsung would share more of its $50 billion cash pile with investors. the move wasn't enough to keep investors entirely happy. let's find out why. chery kang joins us from seoul. hi, chery. was the beef this time? >> looking at shares, now it's closed down more than 2% despite this major session today. investors don't seem too convinced today, i think, to a certain extent. investors were kind of disappointed with its dividend policy saying it's considering 1% of payout for the year when they were hoping for a bigger present this time from today's analyst day event. now, what samsung electronics is doing is or going to do with that huge pile of cash that it's sitting on right now, running at about 350 billion u.s. dollars was one of the big questions that investors were asking today. and samsung's answer was, no, our cash pile is not e
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